The Leader as Catalyst: On Leadership and the Mechanics of Institutional Change

Individual leaders have been central to the transformation of organizations, political institutions and many instances of social and economic reform. In this paper we take a first step towards analyzing the role of leadership to ask: when and how does a leader engineer change? We show that while underlying structural conditions and institutions are important, there is an independent first-order role for individual agency in bringing about change and thus transforming the institutions. We emphasize the key nature of the symbiotic relationship between followers decisions' to willingly entrust their faith in the leader and the leader's initiative at leading them. This two-way interaction can endogenously give rise to threshold effects; slight differences in the leader's ability or the underlying structural conditions can dramatically improve the prospects for successful change. Given the centrality of this leader-follower relationship, we further explore conditions under which an individual may deliberately prefer to follow an ambitious leader with divergent interests rather than a benevolent one with congruent preferences. Thus by virtue of having followers, both `good' and `bad' leaders may be effective at bringing about change.Leadership, Followers, Change

Enrollment Responses to Labour Market Conditions: A Study of the Canadian Market for Scientists and Engineers

As Canada increasingly structures itself towards a "knowledge based economy", the supply of high-skilled professionals such as engineers and other science graduates acquires more importance. Following the theoretical framework developed by Ryoo and Rosen(2004), we develop and estimate a dynamic supply and demand model for engineers and scientists in Canada. We find that the estimated stock-flow dynamics are supportive of the theoretical model. The relative employment of engineers is quite sensitive to research and development (R&D) expenditures as a fraction of GDP, particularly after 1997. We then use the estimates to develop a dynamic impulse response function. Looking at the impact of a permanent increase in allocation towards R&D, we find that the adjustment process is relatively smooth and the market adjusts in about 2 to 8 years (plus the four years of natural lag in production) to within 80% of the final steady state. For a one-time improvement in R&D allocation, we find that under rational expectations, there is an initial increase in the number of science graduates, but then it falls to below the steady state value and remains there for a long period as the initial increase works its way through the market.dynamic supply and demand, engineers and scientists, R & D expenditure, adjustment dynamics

Institution building and political accountability

The paper examines the role of policy intervention in engendering institutional change. We show that first order changes in the political structure (e.g. introduction of democracy) may be undermined by local political interests and result in persistence in institutions and the (poor) quality of governance. The paper identifies two effects of development policy as a tool for institutional change. One, by increasing political accountability, it may encourage nascent democratic governments to invest in good institutions – the incentive effect. However, we show that it also increases the incentive of the rentier elite to tighten their grip on political institutions – the political control effect. Which of these dominate determine the overall impact on institutional quality. Under some conditions, by getting the elite to align their economic interests with that of the majority, development policy can lead to democratic consolidation and economic improvement. However if elite entrenchment is pervasive, then comprehensive change may require more coercive means

The Leader as Catalyst – on Leadership and the Mechanics of Institutional Change

Individual leaders have been central to the transformation of political institutions, organizations and many instances of social and economic reform. Why are some leaders able to take advantage of opportunities to successfully catalyze large-scale change while others fail? In this paper we argue that the key to understanding a leader’s effectiveness lies in dissecting the symbiotic nature of the leader-follower relationship. While the expected dynamism of a leader attracts followers, at the same time, followers empower the leader and contribute to his dynamism. This two-way leader-follower interaction can endogenously give rise to threshold effects: ‘small’ differences in leader ability can have a large impact on the degree of effective leadership and dramatically alter the prospects for change. The framework also naturally allows us to explore when individuals may deliberately prefer to follow an ambitious leader with very different preferences rather than a leader with more congruent preferences. Moreover, by empowering the self-interested ambitious leader, such followership may make him a more effective agent of (both good and bad) change.

How to take an exam if you must: Decision under Deadline

This paper uses the example of an exam to model multi-dimensional search under a deadline. When the dimension is two, an order-invariance property allows simple characterization of the optimal search policy. Behavior is shown to be highly sensitive to changes in the deadline, and a wide variety of policies can be rationalized (as being optimal) as the length of the deadline increases. This is contrasted with behavior under the traditional case of geometric discounting, in which a similar sensitivity to changes in the discount factor cannot hold. For dimensions higher than two, the invariance principle does not hold; this increases complexity of the problem of finding the optimal search policy.Deadline, search, invariance

Policy Gambles

This paper develops a theory of policy making, that examines the incentives for experimentation with new policies and the scrappage of adopted policies. We demonstrate that a government which cares about its reputation out of electoral concerns, takes socially ine?cient policy gambles that may result in two kinds of ine?ciencies ? Þrst, a government may ine?ciently experiment by undertaking a new policy initiative that it (and the voter) knows is unlikely to succeed, and second, the government may prefer to not learn from experience and instead persist with an adopted policy despite publicly observable evidence of its failure. Furthermore, these ine?ciencies are systematically related to the electoral cycle. Early on in its term a government is likely to enact policies that are either too conservative or too radical, while later on in its term the government is likely to show ine?cient policy persistence.Learning, Policy Persistence, Policy Experimentation, Leadership, Reputation

Walk the line : conflict, state capacity and the political dynamics of reform

This paper develops a dynamic framework to analyze the political sustainability of economic reforms in developing countries. First, we demonstrate that economic reforms that are proceeding successfully may run into a political impasse, with the reform’s initial success having a negative impact on its political sustainability. Second, we demonstrate that greater state capacity to make compensatory transfers to those adversely affected by reform, need not always help the political sustainability of reform, but can also hinder it. Finally, we argue that in ethnically divided societies, economic reform may be completed not despite ethnic conflict, but because of it

Walk the Line: Conflict, State Capacity and the Political Dynamics of Reform

This paper develops a dynamic framework to analyze the political sustainability of economic reforms in developing countries. First, we demonstrate that economic reforms that are proceeding successfully may run into a political impasse, with the reform's initial success having a negative impact on its political sustainability. Second, we demonstrate that greater state capacity to make compensatory transfers to those adversely affected by reform, need not always help the political sustainability of reform, but can also hinder it. Finally, we argue that in ethnically divided societies, economic reform may be completed not despite ethnic conflict, but because of it.Economic reform, State capacity, Politics, Redistribution, Compensation, Ethnic Conflict

Workers Without Borders? Culture, Migration and the Political Limits to Globalization

This paper examines the role of cultural factors in driving the politics and shape of migration policy. We show that there exists a broad political failure that results in inefficiently high barriers restricting the import of temporary foreign workers and also admitting an inefficiently large number of permanent migrants, but not enough to fill any labor shortage in the economy. We show that countries that are poor at cultural assimilation are better positioned to take advantage of short-term foreign worker programs than more culturally diverse and tolerant countries. A striking implication is that relaxing restrictions on the mobility of migrant workers across employers has the potential to raise host country welfare even though it increases migrant wages and lowers individual firm's profits. We also demonstrate the existence of multiple equilibria: some countries have mostly temporary migration programs and see a low degree of cultural assimilation by the migrants, while other countries rely more on permanent migrants and see much more assimilation.international migration, political economy, cultural heterogeneity, temporary workers

Politics, Information and the Urban Bias

Governments in many developing countries skew public resources towards urban sectors, despite a majority of citizens residing in rural areas. This paper develops a novel political argument for this urban bias phenomenon in a framework where all voters, rural and urban, have equal voice, but di?er in their access to information. We argue that this di?erence is su?cient to give governments an incentive to ine?ciently overallocate resources towards urban areas. The bias is shown to worsen during adverse economic times, leading to increased migration. We also examine how voter informativeness a?ects e?ciency of the electoral process in weeding out incompetent governments.Urban Bias, Information, Heterogeneous Electorate, Migration.